Why Sweden's high number of reported rapes might be a positive sign
Statistics serve a vital purpose, but when taken at face value, they sometimes fail to tell the whole story. For example, countries that step up their efforts to prevent rape may see a rise in reported rapes rather than a decrease—but this is not necessarily bad. The key is to examine the
cause of the increase.
It may be that a new, broader definition of rape is enabling more sex-related crimes to be categorized as rape. It may be that types of rape that previously went untracked (such as male-on-male or rape between a groom and his betrothed) are now being counted. It may also be that the legal system is getting better at catching and punishing rapists and/or society is doing a better job of supporting rape victims, so those victims are more likely to come forward and report the rape in the first place.
In each of these examples, the overall number of rapes will appear to rise statistically. However, the key to interpreting that statistical rise is to examine its real-world cause—which in some cases is an improvement in real-world policy regarding the definition of and systemic response to rape.
Sweden's seemingly oversized rape rate is perhaps the best-known example of this scenario. During the years 2013-2017, Sweden averaged 64 reported rapes per 100,000 inhabitants—a rate that tied for the highest in
Europe. However,
when the data was examined, it became clear that Sweden's high numbers were fueled in large part by Sweden's broader definition of rape and more inclusive reporting rules compared to other European countries. When the data was recalculated using
Germany's narrower guidelines, for example, Sweden's average reported rapes per 100,000 people
fell from 64 to 15, a decrease of 76.56%.
worldpopulationreview.com
